I am not making a full post for today. (I have a draft about the change in EU and US utilities contract coverage, but I think that can wait). I just want to come with a reminder that if you invest in a volatile sector you are responsible for your own results.
I had not checked my portfolio performance before today. Watching the value of a portfolio going up or down in real time is very different from seeing it after the fact. If you see something in real time, you are often tempted to do something about it. That is not always the best decision. When I checked today I saw it was about 33% down from the November highs. (I have used URNM as an illustration for the general uranium sector).
I do however own the decisions made since November. The initial strategy has been to add every month and stomach the volatility.
Right before the November high, the value of my portfolio was high enough for me to exit the trade and be happy with the results. That meant that I would break my initial strategy. Something I only want to do if the thesis changes. I decided to stick to my initial strategy, and by doing that, I accepted responsibility for all of my results today. My results are not dependent on decisions outsourced to other people. My portfolio being down 33% is something I can live with.
The developments we are seeing now in the general stock market is in the top three bear case-scenarios for my portfolio. (The general stock market is turning over and is dependent on FED intervention). If the cavalry does not come to the rescue, the general stock market will continue down, and few know where we will end up in the end. Commodity equities are still equities and follow the general market. (There are a lot more nuances here, but nuances are not the topic for today).
What you think will be the FED response to this development will decide how you invest going forward. The range is wide. From going 100% to cash to going all in. The only thing I know is that the next couple of weeks will be interesting…