I have already compared the uranium sector to a roller coaster. Today I will expand on that a bit more. The peaks and valleys you will have to go through will only increase with the higher valuations. You therefore have to be prepared for it.
It is not easy to hold on to uranium positions in a bull market. (I have used a graph for Global Atomic for illustration, but the story is similar for most of the companies in the sector). Since mid June 2021 we’ve had a two months long correction that lasted till the end of August. Most of the companies went down 25% or more during this time. When we reached the second bottom in August, the sentiment was close to rock bottom. Most people knew that Sprott was coming during these months, but towards the end several were doubting that it would have an effect on the spot market. This however quickly turned with SPUT launching their ATM on 17. August. We saw the spot price going up from about $30 to $50 inside one month. Many of the companies doubled during this time. Suddenly investing in uranium was considered a sure bet. Just buy SPUT and count your gains. We went from one extreme to the next.
This did not last long. When sentiment did not seem it could get any more positive, we got the news from China that the real estate giant Evergrande may become the Lehman Brothers equivalent for the markets in 2021. Several uranium companies then corrected down by more than 25% within two to three trading days. These moves up and down within a month can make the most veteran of investors nauseous.
A question for many is, how should you deal with this? Should you sell down and diversify your portfolio? I can share some thoughts I have made on my own portfolio allocation.
Value, volatility and allocation of positions
From 1. August 2020 the value of my portfolio has gone up almost 3X. (I picked August 2020 because the value of my uranium portfolio was still reasonably low then). The increase of almost 3x is partly from new money invested, but mainly from returns on the existing uranium positions.
At 1. August 2020 my allocation to uranium was just over 60% with gold, silver and other investments amounting to the last 40%.
As of september 2021, my allocation to uranium has gone up the most because it has had the best returns. Uranium is the most volatile of the sectors I am invested in. For my portfolio this means that for any given day, the volatility is now expected to be higher than it was in 2020. I have allocated funds to other positions, but my uranium positions have grown a lot more than my new ones. The volatility in my portfolio is therefore mainly uranium.
From the June top, my portfolio value was down about 27% of its June value when it had its first bottom in July. After a failed recovery, it dipped again in August. At the beginning of September we went vertical with SPUT purchases, and the portfolio recovered its losses and went up to about 30% above its June value in just a couple of weeks. (From the bottom in July the value was up almost 78%). After the latest week of fear in the market I am now down to 5 % above the June high, or about 18% down from September the top. The difference from the June top is the sums are a lot higher, and it feels worse to loose the higher amounts. Other, less volatile sectors can take a year to make any of these moves we have had the last couple of months.
You can compare holding your uranium positions through a bull market to raising a tiger. At the beginning it is not that big and scary, and it is still relatively easy to control. When it is fully grown, you risk losing your arm if you are not careful.
I will take my initial position off at some time to reduce the risk, but we are not there yet.